The Contraction
The U.S. cannabis license count has declined for 12 of the last 13 quarters. Active licenses fell to approximately 36,665–37,824 by Q4 2025 (CRB Monitor reports 36,665; Emerald Intel counts 37,824) — down roughly 14% from the peak of ~44,300 in late 2022. Cultivation permits fell 8.6% year-over-year (from 18,630 to 17,013) as wholesale price compression makes growing cannabis unprofitable for thousands of operators.
This is not evenly distributed. Open-license states with low barriers to entry are seeing the worst contraction, while limited-license states remain relatively stable.
License Counts by Type
| License Type | Active (Q4 2025) | YoY Change | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cultivation | 17,013 | −8.6% | ~45% |
| Retail / Dispensary | 13,309 | Mixed | ~35% |
| Manufacturing / Processing | 5,629 | −5.0% | ~15% |
| Other (distribution, testing, delivery, micro) | ~1,873 | — | ~5% |
Source: Emerald Intel, CRB Monitor. License categories are approximate as states define types differently.
Largest States by License Count
| State | Total Active | Cultivation | Retail | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | ~6,000–7,000 | ~5,500–6,000 | ~1,244 | 23% contraction over 2 years |
| Oklahoma | ~4,700–5,564 | ~2,559 | ~1,559 | Down 56% from peak; 823 lost in Q4 2025 alone |
| Michigan | ~4,150–4,269 | ~1,500–2,000 | ~994 | Grew 3% then contracted late 2025 |
| Colorado | ~2,500–3,000 | ~1,200 | ~1,023 | Mature market shedding operators |
| Oregon | ~2,000–2,500 | ~1,200–1,400 | ~824 | Oversupply driving exits |
| New Mexico | ~2,000+ | ~800 | ~650 | 644 new licenses in Q1 2025 (+27%) |
| New York | ~1,500–1,800 | ~200 | ~750 | 413% YoY growth in Q4 issuances |
In 2025, California, New York, Michigan, and New Mexico accounted for 66% of all new licenses nationally.
What License Data Tells You
License counts are a leading indicator of market health:
- Rising license counts in a mature market signal increasing competition and potential oversupply
- Declining cultivation licenses indicate wholesale price compression has made growing unprofitable for marginal operators
- Stable retail licenses with declining cultivation licenses suggest retailers are capturing margin from cheaper inputs
- Delivery license growth signals market evolution toward convenience channels
No state publishes cannabis business failure rates in the way that the SBA tracks small business survival rates. There are no 1-year, 3-year, or 5-year survival rate statistics for cannabis businesses. This is one of the data gaps our premium reports aim to fill.
License data for your market. Our City & State Reports include license counts, competitive density analysis, and application pipeline data for specific markets.