Our Methodology

Research Philosophy

Cannabis market research has a credibility problem. Much of the available data is either expensive and opaque, or free but unreliable. Industry-funded surveys often lack disclosed methodology. State regulatory filings are excellent but fragmented across 50 different systems. And too many published projections rely on assumptions that are never stated.

CannaIntelligence takes a different approach: transparent methodology, named sources, and public accountability for our predictions.

Four-Pillar Methodology

Our research follows a four-pillar framework inspired by Mintel’s consumer research methodology, adapted for cannabis market intelligence:

1. Regulatory & Public Data

The foundation of all our market intelligence. State regulatory agencies publish licensing counts, tax revenue, sales data, and enforcement actions. Federal agencies (DEA, FDA, USDA) provide national context. This is the most reliable data available because it comes from entities with legal authority to collect it.

2. Financial & Corporate Analysis

Public cannabis companies file quarterly and annual reports (10-Q, 10-K, annual reports) with audited financial data. We extract revenue, margins, store counts, market share, and strategic signals from these filings. For private companies, we use licensing databases, real estate records, and industry databases to estimate scale.

3. Industry & Expert Intelligence

Published industry research (Whitney Economics, Cannabis Benchmarks, BDSA public releases, MJBiz Factbook), academic studies, and conference presentations provide context and cross-validation. We cite specific researchers, studies, and data points rather than making unsourced assertions.

4. Cultural & Consumer Signal Scanning

For the Green Forecast’s cultural trend forecasting, we monitor consumer behavior data, social media signals, local media coverage, academic research, product innovation, and cross-industry convergence patterns. This is the most qualitative pillar and the one we hold to the highest transparency standard through our prediction scorecard.

Analysis Framework

Each CannaIntelligence report follows a structured analysis process:

1. Data collection — gather all available public data for the geography or topic
2. Cross-validation — verify key data points against at least two independent sources where possible
3. Contextualization — place data in the context of regulatory history, market lifecycle, and comparable markets
4. Analysis — identify patterns, anomalies, opportunities, and risks
5. Forecast — develop forward-looking projections with stated assumptions and confidence levels
6. Review — editorial review for accuracy, clarity, and bias

What We Don’t Do

• We do not accept payment from cannabis operators to include or favorably represent them in our research
• We do not make claims we cannot source
• We do not present projections without stating the assumptions behind them
• We do not hide our forecast accuracy — our prediction scorecard publicly tracks what we got right and what we got wrong